Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Up to 10cm of new snow and moderate to strong southwest winds are forecast Saturday night. For the rest of the forecast period expect to see a mix of sun and cloud, isolated flurries and generally light ridgetop winds. The freezing level is expected to hover between 1000m and 1200m. The next storm is forecast to hit the region on Wednesday night.

Backcountry observations have been limited, likely because of inclement weather, but I suspect there was a round of storm slab activity in response to new snow and wind over the weekend. Of note, an isolated yet destructive size 3 natural persistent slab avalanche was reported this week in the South Chilcotin area north of Goldbridge. The avalanche failed on surface hoar buried in early February. Cornices are large and fragile, and may also fail under the weight of a person.

On Sunday 5-15cm of snow fell adding to the moderate amounts that had already fallen on Friday (up to 25cm in 24 hours). Storm totals from the past week were between 50-70cm. Strong southwesterly winds have shifted the new snow into deeper storm slabs on lee and cross-loaded alpine and treeline features. On all but higher elevation shaded slopes the new snow from Sunday likely overlies a melt-freeze crust from high freezing levels and sun on Saturday afternoon. Below the recent storm snow, the snowpack is generally strong and well-settled. That said, a layer of surface hoar buried at the beginning of February is a concern in the South Chilcotin area and can be found about 70cm below the surface. Although this layer is isolated, it has been responsible for destructive natural avalanche activity and is worth keeping on your radar if you're headed to the north of the region.