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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 16th, 2014–Feb 17th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

A series of frontal systems will be sending waves of light precipitation amounts accompanied by strong southwesterly winds. Model runs are in agreement with timing and precipitation amounts.Sunday night: Snow amounts 5 cm. Ridgetop winds blowing light from the SW gusting strong. Freezing levels at valley bottom.Monday: Snow amounts 5-12 cm. Alpine temperatures -4.0. Light SW ridgetop winds with strong gusts. Freezing levels near 500 m.Tuesday: Snow amounts 5-10 cm. Alpine temperatures near -4.0. Ridgetop winds light-moderate from the SW.Wednesday: Snow amounts 10-15 cm. Alpine temperatures near -4.0 with light SW ridgetop winds.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, natural slab avalanches up to size 2 occurred, additionally some larger size 2.5 were triggered with explosives control. Numerous size 1-2 skier remote (up to 50 m away) slab avalanches released down 60 cm all on the old buried surfaces mentioned above in the snowpack summary.

Snowpack Summary

Over the past week the region has received around 60-90cm of storm snow which overlies a variety of facets, surface hoar, crusts, hard wind press, or any combination of these. Widespread whumpfing, cracking, avalanche activity and remote triggering at all elevations indicate there is a poor bond between the new snow and these old surfaces. Snowpack tests show easy, sudden planar results good propagation propensity.Recent Strong to extreme SE winds have built thick, touchy wind slabs on leeward terrain features and slopes.The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong and well-settled. Basal facets and depth hoar still sit dormant at the bottom of the snowpack in some parts of the region.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

60-90cm of recent snow has formed a reactive slab on all aspects and elevations, particularly on lee wind features. Remote triggering an avalanche from below or adjacent slopes remains a concern, and will likely catch you by surprise.
Avoid wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.>Use conservative route selection, stick to moderate angled terrain with low consequences even if skiing in the trees>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4