Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Out of the deep freeze and back into the 'shred pow cycle' as a series of snow laden pulses approach the region.
Fresh wind slabs will likely be building throughout the day, driving the hazard up by the late afternoon.
Weather Forecast
A series of low pressures systems push into our region over the next few days. Snow begins Saturday night with accumulations of 5-10cm of snow by Sunday night. Sunday will be cloudy with snow flurries, have an alpine high of -7 and 30-50km/hr South West winds at ridge top. 30cm forecasted for Monday, 10cm for Tuesday and another 10cm on Wednesday.
Snowpack Summary
The forecasted new snow will bury wind affect at tree line and above, sun crust on steep solar aspects at all elevations and facetted surfaces everywhere else. The Feb 15 surface hoar/sun crust is down 30-70 cm and has not been reactive in tests or skier traffic in the past couple days, but may re-awaken with the new load and warming temps.
Avalanche Summary
Several reports of wind slabs avalanches from the last few days up to size 1.5.
A sz 2.5 out of Cougar Creek West on Saturday, likely a cornice triggered wind slab.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
New snow and 30-50km/hr South West winds may build wind slabs along ridge lines and in cross loaded features. The new wind slabs will bury widespread surface facets, small surface hoar and crusts on steep solar aspects.
- Watch for surface cracking and stiffer surface layers of snow.
- Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
A persistent weak layer of surface hoar and/or sun crust may be found down 30-70 cm. As temperatures warm and the snow accumulates we might see this layer become reactive again in areas where it has not already avalanched.
- Persistent slabs may be more sensitive to human triggering on solar asp where they sit on sun crust
- If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2