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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2022–Jan 4th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: North Rockies.

Continued strong northeasterly winds are expected to form reactive wind slabs in open terrain at all elevations.

The best and safest riding will be on wind-sheltered slopes that have soft snow without any slab properties. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy / Moderate northeast wind / Low of -37

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Strong northeast wind / High of -29

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny / Moderate east wind / High of -29

THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness with flurries; 3-5 cm / Moderate southwest wind / High of -20

Avalanche Summary

Several explosive triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported in the alpine and treeline on Sunday.

Over 60 cm of new snow on Saturday night in the pine pass area formed reactive slabs; especially in wind affected terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Continued strong northeasterly winds are expected to form reactive wind slabs on lee features at all elevations.

Freshly formed wind slabs are most likely to be found on south and westerly aspects, but older wind slabs may be found on all aspects.

The Pine Pass area received over 60 cm of new snow Saturday night which combined with strong southwest winds to form touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers.

Much of the rest of the region received 10-20 cm of snow and strong southwesterly winds which formed reactive wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above.

A weak layer of feathery surface hoar may be found around 20 to 50 cm deep. It is most likely found in sheltered terrain features in the lower alpine and treeline, or open features below treeline (e.g., cut blocks). We've only received a few reports of this layer, so it may be spotty in the region.

The base of the snowpack is composed of crusts and weak faceted grains, particularly in thin snowpack areas east of the divide. These deeply buried weak layers will create large, destructive avalanches if triggered. Avoid likely trigger spots such as steep, rocky slopes, with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of highly variable recent wind loading patterns.
  • The best and safest riding will be on slopes that have soft snow without any slab properties.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Keep your guard up at lower elevations. Wind slab formation has been extensive.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Continued strong northeasterly winds are expected to form reactive wind slabs on lee features at all elevations.

Freshly formed wind slabs are most likely to be found on south and westerly aspects, but older wind slabs may be found on all aspects.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5