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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2019–Jan 4th, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Today is a great day to ride/ski in-bounds at a ski resort. The HWY and all of are permit areas are closed. We will be triggering numerous large avalanches with artillery fire in the HWY corridor!AVOID ALL AVALANCHE TERRAIN!

Weather Forecast

We are forecasting another 30cm today accompanied by strong winds with the freezing level hovering near 900m today. Another 20cm plus tonight, winds staying strong and no significant change to the freezing levels. Friday we'll receive another dozen centimeters, then the snow will start to taper off by Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

50cms of new snow overnight formed a touchy storm slab! The Dec 9 and Nov 21 interfaces are now situated in the "lower snowpack", and are still possible to trigger in shallow/rocky areas. The mid to lower snowpack is generally well settled and rounding. Decomposing early seasons crusts are still present at/near the ground.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle started early this morning; so far we have observed avalanches to size 3 running full path! We are forecasting the cycle to intensify throughout the day as heavy snowfall continues and the winds rapidly increase. The highway and all permit areas will be closed as we trigger numerous large avalanches with artillery fire.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Rapid loading has created storm slabs at all elevations and aspects. Avalanches will run to and may cross valley bottom. Natural and human triggered avalanches will be very likely to almost certain as the cycle will peak today.
Avoid all avalanche terrain!

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches are very likely today with the current rapid loading. Even small terrain features could sluff and be dangerous in the wrong place. Tree wells and deep snow immersion are also real hazards today!
Avoid all avalanche terrain!

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

Storm slabs may step down to the persistent weak layers today. The Dec 9/Nov 21 are down 1.5-2m and consist of surface hoar, facets, or a sun crust depending on aspect and elevation.
Avoid all avalanche terrain!

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2.5 - 4