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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 1st, 2018–Dec 2nd, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Columbia.

There is a lot of uncertainty with the reactivity of the buried weak layers. Human triggered avalanches are more likely at treeline and sheltered locations in the alpine where these weak layers exists. Check out the new forecaster blog HERE.

Confidence

Moderate - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

As the upper ridge sets up, we move into a period of cooling, drying and fairly light, northerly winds. SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud/ alpine temperatures near -8/ generally light winds from the northeast/ freezing level 900 mMONDAY: Cloudy/ alpine temperatures near -10/ ridgetop winds light from the northeast/ freezing levels valley bottomTUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud/ alpine temperatures -12/ ridgetop winds light from the northeast/ freezing levels valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a natural size 3 slab avalanche was seen on Mt. Begbie  (ENE aspect above 2000 m). We suspect that it might have been triggered from rockfall or a cornice above the slope and propagated wide. This avalanche may have failed on the basal crust, which we suspect it may need a large trigger, but if triggered will be very large and destructive.On Friday, two glide slab avalanche releases were reported up to size 2 from north through east aspects at 1600 m and 1900 m. These released to ground in specific geothermal terrain features. On Thursday, a deep persistent slab avalanche was triggered by explosives. This avalanche was a size 2.5 from a northeast aspect in an upper alpine bowl. The avalanche initiated from a shallow, rocky spot with good propagation and failed on the buried crust at the base of the snowpack. This avalanche character is very similar to the human triggered size 3 mentioned below.Last Saturday, a human triggered size 3 avalanche was reported in the region. This avalanche likely ran on the October crust, as it was reported as a full depth avalanche. Two reports on this avalanche can be found on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

40-80 cm of recent snow sits on two layers of feathery surface hoar that are approximately buried 15 cm apart. One or both of these may be associated with a crust on south aspects. The surface hoar is mostly found at treeline, but it may be found in sheltered alpine areas. Snowpack test results on these layers are showing a variety of planar results which indicate that this interface may be susceptible to human triggers.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed near the end of October. This crust is associated with sugary weak faceted crystals and has shown some reactivity in the South Columbia region. Suspect slopes and terrain are open bowls that host a rocky thin to thick snowpack in the alpine or upper treeline. Snowpack depths taper quickly with elevation, many areas have over 200 cm in the alpine, between 100-170 cm at treeline, and 10-100 cm below treeline.Check out the FORECASTER BLOG as it will express our uncertainties with the current snowpack in this region.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

40 to 80 cm of recent storm snow overlies a weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals) and sun crust on steep south facing slopes. This problem may be more prevalent at treeline and in sheltered (northerly) alpine slopes.
Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, cracking, or recent avalanches.If triggered the slab may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

A crust at the base of the snowpack will result in large avalanches if triggered. Smaller avalanches, cornice and/ or rockfall may have the potential to step down to the basal layer.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger the deep persistent slab.Avoid alpine bowls with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3