Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday

Tuesday: 15-25cm of new snow / Strong westerly winds / Freezing level at 500mWednesday: Overcast skies with light flurries / Moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at valley bottomThursday: 5-10cm of new snow / Moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at 500m

A Mountain Information Network post from the Adamant Range on the eastern side of the Selkirks indicated several avalanches failing on the mid-December weak layer. The avalanches were in the size 1-2.5 range and were failing under light loads, in some cases naturally or remotely. A size 2 slab avalanche was also triggered on an alpine slope on Video Peak in Glacier National Park. The avalanche was triggered remotely from a distance of 30 metres. With new snow and strong winds forecast for Monday night and Tuesday, I'd also expect new wind slab activity in higher elevation terrain on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, new snow and wind are forecast to form fresh wind slabs in exposed higher elevation terrain. 40-75 cm of snow now overlies the mid-December interface which consists of a variety of old snow surfaces including wind affected snow, faceted (sugary) crystals, and/or surface hoar crystals. Recent tests suggest the the new snow is well bonded to the interface in most areas. However, this layer is still reactive in some snowpack tests and should be investigated before pushing into steeper terrain. Limited observations suggest this layer has been especially touchy on the eastern side of the Selkirks. The thick mid-November crust layer typically sits 1-2 m down in the snowpack. Recent test results on this layer suggest it is generally well bonded to the adjacent snow with the possible exception of shallow snowpack areas. This layer is considered dormant at this time but remains an isolated concern that we will likely be tracking through much of the season.