Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Synopsis: A quick hitting system passes over the region Friday before a significant and warm rain/snow event arrives Saturday night and then settles in Sunday. Precip amounts and freezing Levels vary significantly from one model to the next, thus overall confidence in this Wx is Fair. Friday: Freezing Level: 1300m - 1800m; Precip: 3/11mm - 4/13cm; Treeline Wind: Light, SW | Mod SW at ridgetop.Saturday: Freezing Level: 1200m; Precip: Nil; Wind: Lht, SWSaturday Night: Freezing Level: 1600m - 1800m; Precip: 8/15mm - 8/16cm; Treeline Wind: Mod, W | Extreme SW at ridgetop.Sunday: Freezing Level: 1600m - 1800m; Precip: 2/13mm - 2/16cm; Treeline Wind: Strong, SW | Extreme SW at ridgetop.

A couple of natural avalanches to size 2 were observed Wednesday while explosive control work produced avalanches to size 3.5 on N through E facing slopes. In one case, explosive control work resulted in a size 3 avalanche which sympatheticly triggered a second size 3 on the other side of the ridge.There was an absence of human triggered activity Wednesday, but it's worth noting a few stand out events from the last few days:On Monday a splitboarder triggered a size 2.5 storm slab on a west aspect in the Revelstoke area. No injuries were reported. In the southeast corner of the region a vehicle remotely triggered a size 2.5 slab avalanche on the February 10th interface. Last Saturday's avalanche fatality occurred in the Keefer Lake area northeast of Cherryville. The avalanche, which occurred in a cut block at about 1700m, involved 3 sledders who were in a party of 6. 2 of the men were able to inflate their airbags and were partially buried. The deceased was reportedly not able to inflate his airbag, and was buried approximately 5m below the surface.

50 - 120 cm of recent storm snow rests on small grained surface hoar in sheltered areas and a sun crust on solar aspects. In upper elevation wind exposed terrain the new snow has been pushed into deep wind slabs by moderate SW winds.The freezing levels remain high (aprox. 1800m) in this spring like pattern. Below treeline the snowpack is seeing a daily melt freeze cycle that has left many features wet and sloppy by the afternoon. This has created an isolated wet slab problem that has been responsible for serious incidents recently. At ridgetop cornices are large and unsupported.The February 10th surface hoar/facet/crust combo is 80 - 250cm below the snow surface and widespread throughout the region. Surface avalanches in motion, cornice fall and/or solar radiation all have the potential to initiate an avalanche on this deeply buried weak layer. Interestingly, we continue to hear about remote triggering at this interface. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.