Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate most of the province bringing mainly clear skies for the forecast period. Winds are expected to be light to moderate from the northwest, becoming westerly on Sunday. Alpine temperatures should hover between 0.0 and +5.0 on Friday and Saturday with some cooling expected for Sunday.

Several natural storm slab avalanches to size 3.5 were reported in the region over the last few days, most occurring in alpine terrain on various aspects. I would expect avalanche occurrences to include loose wet activity and cornice fall with real potential for deep slab activity with forecast warming.

Parts of the forecast area have received up to 90cm of storm snow which has been blown into dense windslabs in exposed areas. The new snow overlies a variety of old surfaces, the most reactive of which appears to be the Jan 8th surface hoar. There are reports of "sudden" test results on this layer, now buried anywhere from 55cm to 90cm below the surface. There are 2 other layers of note which professionals are keeping a close eye on: The late-November persistent weak layer consists of a sun crust on steep south facing slopes and surface hoar in sheltered areas and may sit well over 200cm below the surface. At the base of the snowpack you may also find the October persistent weak layer which consists of facets sitting on a crust. This layer is predominantly found on northerly aspects at tree line and in the alpine. The depth of both these layers makes skier triggering unlikely (maybe a heavy load on a thin spot in steep terrain, a cornice fall or rapid warming). The consequences of triggering any of these weaknesses would be severe..