Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 15th, 2019 5:02PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.

cgarritty, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

The first big warm up of spring is underway. Loose wet avalanches will be the emerging concern on Saturday. Rising temperatures and weak overnight cooling will bring the North Shore's persistent slab problem back into consideration early next week.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Cloudy with clear periods. Light southwest winds.Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around +2 with freezing levels around 1900 metres, increasing overnight.Sunday: Mainly sunny with cloud decreasing over the day. Light northeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around +7 with freezing levels reaching 2500 metres, increasing overnight.Monday: Sunny. Light east or southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around +10 with freezing levels reaching 3300 metres and remaining elevated overnight.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity was reported on Wednesday. Explosive control produced small (size 1) slab avalanches on Tuesday. No other avalanches were reported.

Snowpack Summary

Relatively light amounts of moist snow have fallen on a variety of snow surfaces including a crust on steep south slopes and possibly weak surface hoar crystals on sheltered and shaded slopes. The new snow may take a little time to bond, especially on north aspects at higher elevations. A layer of weak and sugary faceted grains sits on a melt-freeze crust about 50 to 120 cm deep. The layer is likely most prominent in the North Shore Mountains and on north aspects. This layer continues to be reactive in snowpack tests. The problem is not typical for the region and we expect this persistent weak layer to linger for some time.The lower snowpack is generally strong.

Problems

Loose Wet

Weak overnight cooling and steadily increasing temperatures will be increasing the chances of loose wet avalanches over the coming days. Loose wet avalanches may occur naturally or with a human trigger as heat destabilizes surface snow.

Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Wind Slabs

Watch for thin wind slabs which may remain sensitive to human triggering. These are most likely to be found immediately lee of ridgecrest.

Be careful with wind slabs lingering in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Mar 16th, 2019 2:00PM