Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 15th, 2019–Mar 16th, 2019

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast.

The first big warm up of spring is underway. Loose wet avalanches will be the emerging concern on Saturday. Rising temperatures and weak overnight cooling will bring the North Shore's persistent slab problem back into consideration early next week.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Cloudy with clear periods. Light southwest winds.Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around +2 with freezing levels around 1900 metres, increasing overnight.Sunday: Mainly sunny with cloud decreasing over the day. Light northeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around +7 with freezing levels reaching 2500 metres, increasing overnight.Monday: Sunny. Light east or southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around +10 with freezing levels reaching 3300 metres and remaining elevated overnight.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity was reported on Wednesday. Explosive control produced small (size 1) slab avalanches on Tuesday. No other avalanches were reported.

Snowpack Summary

Relatively light amounts of moist snow have fallen on a variety of snow surfaces including a crust on steep south slopes and possibly weak surface hoar crystals on sheltered and shaded slopes. The new snow may take a little time to bond, especially on north aspects at higher elevations. A layer of weak and sugary faceted grains sits on a melt-freeze crust about 50 to 120 cm deep. The layer is likely most prominent in the North Shore Mountains and on north aspects. This layer continues to be reactive in snowpack tests. The problem is not typical for the region and we expect this persistent weak layer to linger for some time.The lower snowpack is generally strong.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Weak overnight cooling and steadily increasing temperatures will be increasing the chances of loose wet avalanches over the coming days. Loose wet avalanches may occur naturally or with a human trigger as heat destabilizes surface snow.

Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5

Wind Slabs

Watch for thin wind slabs which may remain sensitive to human triggering. These are most likely to be found immediately lee of ridgecrest.

Be careful with wind slabs lingering in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5