Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Are certain you know the recent history of that steep open slope? Did it already avalanche? Or, was it previously beaten up by the wind, the sun or heavy skier traffic?
If the answer is no, it's probably best to give it a miss.
Weather Forecast
A couple low pressure systems moving inland, give light snow Thursday, and a more substantial snowfall Friday.
Tonight: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine Low -17*C. Light SW ridgetop wind
Thurs: Flurries (5cm). High -6*C, moderate SW winds
Fri: Snow (20cm). Low -8*C, high -6*C. Mod-extreme SW winds
Sat: Isolated flurries, Strong W wind, High -7*C
Snowpack Summary
10-20cm of low density new snow is now hiding the slabby 30-50cm that fell with mod-strong SW winds on Monday. This overlies various drought interfaces: the Jan 29 surface hoar (5-15mm) on all sheltered/shady slopes, wind effect/crust in exposed areas, and a suncrust on solar aspects. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5-2.5m.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche control in the Cougar Corner and Abott paths on Wednesdays, produced several slab avalanches, up to size 2.0.
On Tuesday, a crew on Abbott were able to easily ski cut sz 1-1.5 slab avalanches on convexities.
On Monday, natural activity occurred at all elevations, with widespread storm slabs failing on the Jan 29th layer.
Confidence
Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
The Jan 29th surface hoar (where preserved) is buried 40-60cm deep - making it likely to trigger on open slopes without previous activity.
Practice good group management, skiing from safe spot to safe spot.
- Be wary of large open slopes that did not previously avalanche.
- Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
Warming temps and moderate winds will promote further windslab development on Thursday.
Older windslabs created by strong Southwest winds with Mondays storm remained reactive on Wednesday.
- Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.
- If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5