Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 11th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada bchristie, Avalanche Canada

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Dynamic weather requires dynamic decision making. Current snowpack conditions vary with elevation, and could change through the day with above zero temperatures and sunshine. Keep a constant watch for signs of instability and prepare for challenging travel.

Summary

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels will vary greatly across the region. Expect as high as 2000 m around terrace and kitimat, lower as you look further North, and as low as 500 m around Ningunsaw.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Possible trace of snow expected. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Freezing levels rise as high as 2000 m. 

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny, partly cloudy by the afternoon. Light snow/rain expected. Moderate to strong west wind. Freezing levels as high as 2000 m.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light snow/rain expected. Light south wind. Freezing levels falling to 1000 m by the afternoon.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Possible trace of snow expected. Moderate northwest winds, trending to strong by the afternoon. Freezing level between 250 m and 750 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Friday before 4pm. 

On Thursday, east of Kitimat, explosives avalanche control below treeline continued to produce large wet loose avalanches. Additionally, a professional operation north of Terrace reported a few large, natural avalanches from steep, alpine features in the afternoon.

On Wednesday, heavy precipitation, rising freezing levels, and strong wind caused a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 4 (very large). Many professional operators were reporting natural avalanches running full path to valley bottom. In the north of the region, avalanches mostly started in the alpine or treeline as storm or wind slabs, in some cases stepping down to old weak layers from January and December. In the south of the region, most of the avalanches reported were wet loose, or wet slabs.  

Snowpack Summary

A wet, warm, rainy storm on Wednesday soaked the upper snowpack up to mountaintop in the southern half of the region. Freezing levels dropped to around 1000 m on Thursday, and they'll vary across the region on Saturday (ranging from valley bottom in the north end of the region, to 2200 m in the south). You may find a solid, supportive crust, a breakable crust over moist snow, or loose, wet snow. Prepare for challenging travel conditions, either slide-for-life, or super grabby.

At higher elevations that did not see much rain, expect to find windslabs on many aspects due to moderate to strong south through northwest winds.

Down 60-100 cm, you may find a weak layer of surface hoar crystals, particularly around treeline elevations in terrain features sheltered from the wind. This layer may be found immediately above a hard melt-freeze crust.

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
  • Although their spatial distribution is isolated, wind slabs are reactive.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Terrain that didn't get rained on during Wednesday's storm still holds dry, cold snow, and moderate to strong winds have varied in direction the last few days.

If the snow seems soft and dry, watch out for signs of instability like shooting cracks, or hollow, drum-like sounds, and use extra caution around ridge crests and on convex rolls. 

Cornices have been reported to be quite large, and they could become weak with above zero temperatures and daytime sun, so use extra caution when travelling around or underneath them. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Most of the region will see clear skies on Saturday, and may see above freezing temperatures into the alpine again. Be cautious around steep slopes that are in the sun, unless you are sure the snow surface is a thick, frozen crust.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 12th, 2022 4:00PM

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