Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 16th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Cornices.
dboucher,
Avalanche Canada
Wet snow, rain and freezing level up to 1700 m will continue to weaken the snowpack and cornices that may have become heavy and fragile.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.
Weather Forecast
An advancing Pacific system will begin impacting the south coast ranges Monday morning with wet snow and rain throughout the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy, no precipitation, 40-60 km/h westerly winds, low treeline temperature +4 C with freezing level at 2000 m.
MONDAY: Rain, accumulation 10-15 mm, 40-60 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature +2 C with freezing level going down to 1700 m.
TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated wet flurries, accumulation 1-3 cm, 5-10 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature 0 C with freezing level around 1300 m.
WEDNESDAY: Wet snow mixed with rain, accumulation 3-5 cm, 10-20 km/h southwesterly winds, high treeline temperature -1 C with freezing level around 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
A natural avalanche cycle occurred up to size 3, from the heavy precipitation and rising temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Following the storm, avalanche activity has tapered off over the weekend.
If you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to around 2100 m, forming a surface crust as temperatures cool the wet snow. Below this, snow is moist down 25-50 cm where several previous crusts sit that are currently breaking down.Â
Around 150 to 200 cm deep, sugary faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust, that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.
Terrain and Travel
- Large cornice falls are dangerous on their own.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Problems
Cornices
With heavy precipitations and warm temperatures during the last week, and more wet snow and rain to come, cornices may have become heavy and fragile - take care on and under ridge lines.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 17th, 2022 4:00PM
