Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 18th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Loose Dry.
Jonas Hoke,
A fast moving front is forecast to affect our area mid afternoon on Saturday.
It might be a good day to plan on getting an early start and getting back to low consequence terrain (or better yet the parking lot) before the storm arrives.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Another pulse of snow will arrive Saturday afternoon.
Tonight: Isolated flurries, Alpine low -6*C, moderate S ridgetop wind
Sat: Snow (12cm - rain at lower elevations?), high -3*C, freezing level (FZL) 1700m, mod SW wind
Sun: Clear periods, low -12*C, high -9*C, FZL 1000m, mod SW wind
Mon: Flurries (5cm), low -9*C, high -6*C, FZL 1500m, mod SW wind
Snowpack Summary
Incoming new snow adds to the 45-70cm of settled snow received since Mar 11th. Solar aspects treeline and below have a series of buried suncrusts (the most recent - Mar 11th and 7th - may sandwich weak/facetted snow between them). On shaded aspects, spotty small surface hoar may be buried down ~70cm (March 7), down 90cm (Feb 26), and >1m (Feb 15).
Avalanche Summary
On Friday, there was a report of a skier involvement in a size 2 slab avalanche in steep terrain in Puff Daddy, and several size 1 slabs in Ursus trees and Rogers Run - all failing on the Mar 11th suncrust.
On Thursday, a group at the top of Rogers run triggered a size 2 slab avalanche (Mar 11th Suncrust) that nearly hit a group below.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Incoming new snow may increase the sensitivity of the Mar 11th suncrust, which skiers have been triggering daily on steep solar slopes.
Small surface hoar from Mar 7th may also be lingering on Northerly aspects.
- Evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.
- The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
Snow at upper elevations will freshen up the loose dry problem in steep terrain.
Rising temps and even rain at low elevations may trigger a loose moist/wet avalanche cycle near valley bottom.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
- On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 19th, 2022 4:00PM
