Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

An approaching Low and weak front should only bring light snow Wednesday afternoon and overnight with winds backing to the south.THURSDAY: light snow with moderate to strong southeast winds during the day. Treeline temperatures around -10 CFRIDAY: more snow overnight Thursday and possibly into Friday with up to 10 or even 15 cm possible. However, there's significant uncertainty about the just how much new snow will fall. Having said that, highest amounts will be in the south, less towards Golden. Light to moderate South winds.SATURDAY: trace to a few centimetres of snow, light and variable winds, continued treeline temperatures of around -10 C.

Recent avalanche activity has consisted of mainly wind slabs (skier triggered and skier remote) in the size 1-1.5 range. However, we've also received reports of persistent slab avalanches (to size 3) where recent accumulations have been the highest. These avalanches, were skier-triggered or remotely triggered (from a distance) on Monday and naturally occurring on Tuesday with wind loading on cross-loaded slopes. We suspect the buried sun crust buried mid-February.Deep persistent avalanche activity has become less frequent over the past week.

Around 30 cm of recent storm snow is being redistributed into deeper, reactive slabs in wind-exposed terrain. Up to 60cm below the surface there's a layer buried mid-February that's a sun crust on solar aspects, and spotty surface hoar on sheltered slopes. This layer looks most concerning on on solar aspects where it's associated with with small facets or surface hoar above.There are several deeper layers that have shown signs of improving but still remain suspect as low probability - high consequence avalanche problems. I'm talking about surface hoar layer buried back in December and January. Near the base of the snowpack is a November crust combined with loose sugary snow. These layers may "wake-up" with strong inputs such as sustained warming, sustained snowfall, large triggers (e.g. cornice fall, smaller avalanches coming down from above); human triggering is also possible in shallow snowpack areas with convoluted terrain.