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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 11th, 2018–Jan 12th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

If Friday night's storm arrives early, the avalanche danger may be higher than posted.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Friday: About 10cm of the new snow with an additional 10-18cm overnight / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at 700mSaturday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 1900mSunday: Mostly clear skies / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 2500m

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday we received a fantastic MIN report of a size 1.5 skier triggered wind slab in the alpine. You can see it here. This report shows just how different the conditions are between the North Shore and the Squamish area. A new round of storm slab activity is expected in response to new snow and wind on Friday and Saturday. At elevations where rain falls, loose wet avalanches are also possible in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

In the last few days the North Shore Mountains received about 91 mm of rain, and approximately 20 cm of snow with a rapidly fluctuating freezing level. Depending on elevation, the upper snowpack is likely now a mix of moist snow, crusts and settling storm snow. Reactive storm slabs may exist at upper elevations.Approximately 100 cm below the surface you may find a few prominent melt-freeze crusts that were buried mid-December, these crust layers have been reported to be bonding well to the mid-pack and are largely considered dormant.The snowpack depth at 1000 m is about 150 cm and many early season hazards are still present.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and wind on Friday afternoon is expected to promote new storm slab development and increase the avalanche danger toward the end of the day. If the new snow arrives early, the avalanche danger may be higher than posted.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2