Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 7th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
wlewis,
Avalanche Canada
Deep weak layers will be an ongoing concern. Check out the new Forecasters' Blog for more details on managing our challenging snowpack.
Be wary of rocky start zones or wind loaded features where the snowpack varies from thick to to thin. Weak layers are more easily triggered here.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanche activity has been reported in the region. However, there have been several recent reports of large human-triggered avalanches in neighboring regions with a similar snowpack structure.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
The upper snowpack consists of 30-50 cm of settling snow, with a small surface hoar or rime layer found up to 10 cm deep. A crust may exist on sun affected slopes. Consistent southerly winds are redistributing snow into wind loaded features at higher elevations. New wind slabs may sit over the layer of surface hoar and/or crust.
The mid snowpack consists of settling snow and several crusts that may be breaking down. A layer of large and weak facets sits in the bottom of the snowpack, buried in November. This layer is concerning, but harder to trigger based on its depth.
Snowpack depth is roughly 150 cm at treeline. This year's snowpack is weaker than usual, as described in our Forecasters' blog.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Cloudy with flurries possible bringing around 3 cm. Moderate southerly winds. Freezing level around 500 m.
Sunday
Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm. Moderate to strong southerly wind. Freezing levels reach 1200 m, with highs of -1°C.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with flurries. Moderate to strong southerly wind. Freezing levels around 1000 m, highs of -2 °C.
Tuesday
Clearing skies. Light to moderate southerly wind. Freezing levels around 500 m, highs of -4 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
A weak layer of faceted grains sits near the base of the snowpack. The consequence of triggering this layer is high. Riders are most likely to trigger it where the snowpack is relatively shallow, such as on rocky and wind-affected slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Expect southerly winds to form new wind slabs in lee terrain features, on north, west and east facing slopes. Avalanches triggered in wind-loaded terrain have the potential to step down to deeper weak layers, creating larger than expected avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 8th, 2023 4:00PM
