Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 26th, 2012 9:00AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Cornices, Loose Wet and Deep Persistent Slabs.

mike.koppang, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Surface hoar buried 40 to 70cm will be a problem for some time. Natural and human triggered avalanches are still occurring. Although we have seen a slight improvement in hazard, conservative route finding is critical in avoiding an incident. (JM)

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Another 5cm possible overnight with light SW to W winds. Skies to clear and temperatures to start off cool for Monday. Sunshine expected for Monday.

Avalanche Summary

Visibility was extremely limited - no new avalanches observed today. Several Na, Sa and Sr observed over past 3 days.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15cm Hn at TL continues to overload the 120213 layers now buried 40 to 70cm. Recent stability tests confirm that the 120213 SH remains very reactive.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Soft slabs are widespread in all wind affected areas. The Valentine's layers are now buried 40 to 70cm. Cracking and whumpfing have been observed and remotely triggered avalanches are occurring in areas where buried surface hoar is present.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 6

Cornices

Recent winds and snow at higher elevations have caused cornices to grow large and fail in some areas. Failures have triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 on the underlying slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Loose Wet

Clearing skies will bring cold temperatures Monday morning, but there is a chance of solar triggering in the afternoon on steep sun exposed aspects. This problem is entirely dependent on the intensity of solar radiation and extent of cloud cover.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Weak facets and depth hoar linger at the base of the snowpack. Thin steep areas are the most likely trigger points. This problem is still a low probability issue, but with high potential consequences.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Feb 27th, 2012 8:00AM