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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 18th, 2014–Mar 19th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Conditions remain ripe for human triggering of avalanches.  Watch for the effects of daytime heating along or above travel routes. A spike in Avalanche danger is possible by Thursday with incoming snowfall and winds.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Mainly clear skies tonight with Low -11 deg.  Winds west 35km/h.Wednesday - Trace of precip forecast with daytime high -5 deg.  Winds west 35 gusting to 60 km/h.  Looking forward to 15-20cm snow on Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose dry on N-NE aspects to Size 1 observed. Later in PM loose dry were becoming loose moist on steep rocky aspects triggering SSL to Size 1 on steeper planar slopes below.One Size 2.5 full depth slab release on steep NE aspect triggered by cornice failure. Failure plane was ground and ran full path to Smith-Dorrien creek bottom. Max depth in excess of 1 meter deep, up to 100m Wide and 300m in length. Daytime heating may be awakening the deep basal weakness.

Snowpack Summary

New suncrust beginning to form on steep solar exposed slopes. Storm snow is settling and bonding to previous surface but some concern related to windslab development still.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

This persistent weak layer is buried 70 to 100cm in Alpine and Treeline areas and is sensitive to human triggering. There is increasing potential for failure deeper in the snowpack as the weather warms!
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 5

Wind Slabs

Fresh wind slabs are found on lee and cross loaded features at treeline and above.  If these slabs are triggered an avalanche could step down to the Feb 10th layer or even deeper and produce a large avalanche. 
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid cross loaded features.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Loose Dry

Becoming loose moist on steep solar aspects in PM.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3