Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2017 3:14PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Snowfall forecasts are highly uncertain. At the moment it does not look like enough snow will fall to change the hazard level on Tuesday, but backcountry travelers should be keenly aware of localized conditions.

Summary

Confidence

Low - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday will be mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a high near -6 C. Winds will be strong to extreme from the West, and could reach a s high as 140km/h at 3000m. Precipitation forecasts are highly variable, with some models calling for only trace amounts and others calling for up to 20cm by late Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed or reported in past 24hrs.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs up to 35cm deep are found in various areas of the Alpine from lee-, cross-, and reverse-loading. These slabs are also found in isolated areas at Treeline. Snowpack tests continue to indicate failures in the moderate range down 35cm, as well as on the Nov crust layer buried deeply in the snowpack. Overall the snowpack is very weak and facetted, especially at lower elevations. Avalanches initiated in the upper snowpack will likely step down and involve the entire snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs up to 35cm thick are variably distributed in Alpine areas and just down into treeline. Snowpack tests are producing failures at this interface indicating the possibility for human triggering. Watch for reverse wind-loading.

Evaluate unsupported slopes critically.Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deeply buried weak layers dominate the snowpack. Avalanches are more likely triggered from shallow snowpack areas and step down to the basal facets and involve the entire winters snowpack.

If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Jan 17th, 2017 2:00PM