Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

A well-developed ridge of high pressure will continue to provide clear skies, light winds, and very warm temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Freezing levels may climb as high as 3000 metres, and there may not be a freeze on Friday morning in some areas. A weak trough will move inland from the coast on Saturday, bringing moderate southwest winds and increasing cloud cover. Some light precipitation may make it into the Interior ranges, however it may be mostly rain as the freezing level should remain at about 2500 metres on Saturday.

On Tuesday numerous solar triggered loose wet avalanches were reported up to size 2.5. On Monday some recent storm slab avalanches were reported releasing from skier triggering up to size 1.0 on north aspects in the alpine. Some natural cornice activity was also reported up to size 2.5 from northeast and easterly aspects in the alpine. Forecast very warm temperatures and high freezing levels are expected to increase natural cornice activity, and may trigger the buried persistent weak layers.

New surface crusts have formed at all elevations on solar aspects, and on all but high alpine shaded aspects. Some areas have reported a new layer of surface hoar growing in high sheltered alpine locations above 2300 metres.  Approximately 40-50 cm of settled storm snow sits on a melt-freeze crust buried on Mar. 22. The late February persistent weak layer is an aspect dependant mix of surface hoar, facets and/or a thick crust down around 60-110 cm below the snow surface. Commercial operators continue to see hard sudden planar results in snowpack tests, which suggests that wide fracture propagations are possible. Cornices continue to be described as large and fragile. Expect loose wet avalanches and natural cornice falls with strong solar radiation and significant warming this week. Forecast warming may trigger very large slab avalanches on one of the buried crusts or associated weak layers.