Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to keep the region dry until Wednesday. On Monday, mostly sunny conditions are expected with light to moderate alpine wind from the northwest. Freezing levels are forecast to climb to around 2000 m or so by Monday afternoon. On Tuesday, sunny conditions are expected with the potential for valley fog to develop. Alpine wind is forecast to be light to moderate from the southwest. Freezing levels are forecast to reach as high as 3000 m and a temperature inversion will likely develop. A weak storm pulse is expected to reach the region sometime on Wednesday. Freezing levels are forecast to remain above 2500 m and high elevation rain is expected.

On Saturday, natural activity was limited to loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5. Two skier triggered storm slab avalanches were also reported. One was a size 1 wind loaded pocket on a north aspect at 2200 m and the other was a size 2 on a southwest aspect at 1950 m that released on an old sun crust. On Thursday through Friday night, widespread natural and human-triggered storm slab avalanches up to Size 3 were reported throughout the region. On Monday, the recent storm snow is expected to remain reactive to human triggering, especially in wind affected terrain. Extra caution is recommended during the heat of the afternoon, especially on sun exposed slopes. This will become increasingly important through the week as freezing levels remain very high. We are entering the first period of substantial warming following months of sustained cold conditions. Any weaknesses lingering in the snowpack will be tested in the coming days.

40-60 cm of storm snow has accumulated of the past few days and is settling quickly due to the recent mild temperatures. Recent strong winds from the south and west have redistributed this snow in exposed terrain forming touchy wind slabs. Weaknesses may still exist within this recent storm snow with reports of 'upside-down' conditions and easy shears within the storm snow. All this new snow is also bonding poorly to the old interface from early February that includes sun crust on steep sun-exposed slopes, faceted snow, as well as surface hoar on sheltered open slopes. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and stable in deeper snowpack areas but may be faceted and weaker in shallower areas.