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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 13th, 2018–Dec 14th, 2018
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Cascades - South East.

In adjacent zones, new snow and wind have covered weak layers. Warming Thursday may have helped stabilize recent storm layers. An early season shallow snowpack may make an avalanche result in serious injury or worse.

Discussion

Discussion 

Low snow conditions continue to limit the overall avalanche hazard in the East Slopes South forecast zone. Little new snow accumulation has occurred since Tuesday. Recent warming likely helped settle any sensitive storm layers. A strong storm on Tuesday brought plenty of water and rain, but unfortunately little in the way of new snow below treeline due to near or above freezing temperatures. Near and above treeline, we may be approaching the snow depth threshold for avalanches.  

Forecast Schedule

General avalanche and snowpack information will be provided for this area during the winter. However, at this time we do not have enough specific snowpack information to issue an avalanche hazard rating for the East Slopes South zone.  

 

Snowpack Discussion

Regional Synopsis 20181213

Winter is here.

A productive winter storm pattern has elevated the avalanche danger and provided an interesting start to the season.  

A quick breakdown:

  • Tuesday and Wednesday saw a significant localized avalanche cycles.

  • We have a lot of new snow...2’ to 5’ above 4500ft.

  • We’ve gotten a lot of wind.

  • We have weak layers near the ground.

Dangerous avalanche conditions will persist over the next couple of days. That said, it is early season and the flavor of avalanche you may run into is likely a function of elevation, timing, and dumb luck.

Here are some basic emerging patterns:

  • Snowfall totals so far this week (Monday morning to Thursday evening) illustrate more recent snowfall in the north than the south:

    • Mt. Baker: 55”

    • Washington Pass: 29”

    • Stevens Pass: 37”

    • Snoqualmie Pass: 28”

    • Paradise: 38”

    • Mt. Hood Meadows: 13”

  • Upper versus Lower Elevations: The change in the snowpack is still pretty dramatic with elevation. Height of snow decreases rapidly below 4500’ at Baker and Washington Pass, 5500’ at Crystal/Rainier. The Passes have better low elevation coverage, but it's still pretty thin below 4000’. With additional warm storms in the forecast, this pattern is expected to continue for awhile.

  • East versus West: Loading along the East slope has been more incremental, and a  variety of buried facet and surface hoar layers may be found. This is most pronounced near WA Pass. Although significant snowfalls and precip totals have resulted in thicker, more homogeneous snowpack in the western zones, lingering weak layers near the ground will persist through the week.

The uncertainty of how reactive our buried weak layers are will carry into the weekend. Be cautious and get home safe.

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