Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 19th, 2012 9:55AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

Avalanche Canada triley, Avalanche Canada

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

The cold arctic air should begin to be pushed out of the region starting this evening. Strong northeast outflow winds may continue into the evening, and then be replaced with moderate to strong southerly winds by Friday afternoon. Coastal areas may receive 5-10 cm by Friday morning, and a further 10-20 cm during the day on Friday. Inland areas are expected to get about half as much snow during this period. Freezing levels are expected to remain near the valley bottoms in the Smithers area, and may rise to about 700 metres briefly on Friday afternoon near Terrace. Temperatures are expected to rise to about -4.0 at treeline on Friday and then drop slightly to about -7.0 at treeline on Saturday. Strong south-southwest winds on Saturday should continue on Sunday. A series of Pacific frontal systems will continue to bring precipitation over the next few days.

Avalanche Summary

No new reports of avalanches observed.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack depth in the Smithers-Hankin area is about 250-275 cm at the upper extent of the treeline elevation band. Some surface facetting has been observed above treeline, and some surface hoar observed below treeline. Very strong northeast outflow winds have scoured north and east aspects and reduced previous cornice growth. The snow has been transported into stiff windslabs on south through west aspects. These windslabs should be stiff enough in most areas that the forecast southerly winds will not be able to re-distribute the snow. The mid-december crust has been observed to have bonded to the mid-pack in most areas, but may be found to have become facetted in areas with a shallow snowpack. The mid-pack is considered to be strong and well settled in most areas. No basal weak layers of concern have been reported.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Stiff windslabs have developed during the strong northeast outflow winds. New soft windslabs are expected to develop as the new storm develops from the south or southwest. A storm slab is also expected to develop over the next few days.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Jan 20th, 2012 8:00AM