Avalanche Forecast

High

No new avalanches, but visibility was poor.

Today's trip took us into the south access for Hero's knob/Sweet 16. Like the rest of the region, there isn't a lot of snow. We had 85cm at treeline and the odd pocket of 1m. What really caught our attention was the snowpack variability based on elevation. The surface hoar from last month is very prominent up to about 2100m. This layer will vary from area to area, but be sure to have a look for it as it is notable. The other general statement is how weak and poor the regional snowpack is. There is a theme of a somewhat settled upper snowpack resting on a foundation of facets and growing depth hoar. Where the snowpack failures occur seems to vary in depth, but the failures are very, very consistent in their character. They are failing fast, with little warning. It's easy to get caught up in the semantics of layer types and descriptions, but at the end of the day we have a nasty weak layer that is predictably failing. Do your homework, dig your holes and be sure you have a good grip on your local terrain before you commit to consequential terrain.

In case you haven't heard yet, it's going to get cold in the next few days. Tomorrow isn't crazy cold, a morning low of -27 and an afternoon low of -28. But later in the week it will be in the -30's. Winds will be light for most of the day tomorrow, but the windchill will be annoyingly cold. As for snow, there may be a few centimeters coming, but not enough to make a difference.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

• Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Avoid convexities, steep unsupported terrain and rocky outcroppings.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.