Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
The recent storm snow is expected to be touchy on Tuesday and human-triggered avalanches are likely.
Depending on the timing and amount of sun, solar-triggered avalanches are also possible. Extra caution is recommended around steep, sun-exposed slopes.
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
Unsettled conditions are expected for Tuesday as the storm system exits the region and a ridge of high pressure begins to build in its wake.Â
Monday Night: Snowfall 10-20 cm, strong SW wind, freezing level low around 800 m.Â
Tuesday: Cloudy in the morning with lingering flurries up to 5 cm, sunny in the afternoon, strong NW wind easing through the day, freezing level high around 1200 m.
Wednesday: Mainly sunny, light to moderate SW wind, freezing level high around 1600 m.
Thursday: Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks, moderate SW wind, freezing level high around 2500 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday morning, ski cutting was triggering touchy size 1 storm slabs above 1100 m elevation and stubborn size 1 wet loose avalanches below 1100 m elevation. This MIN post and this MIN post from Sunday both describe touchy conditions including several small natural slab avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
As of Monday afternoon, recent storm snow totals are estimated to be around 80-100 cm. This storm snow has buried a widespread, supportive melt-freeze crust. Strong southwest wind has redistributed this new snow in exposed, high-elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs.Â
The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.
Terrain and Travel
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a buried crust.
- Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
The recent storm snow is expected to be touchy on Tuesday, especially in wind exposed terrain.
If the sun is out for extended periods, solar-triggered storm slabs are likely.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Cornices
Cornices are expected to have grown large during the recent storm and may be fragile on Tuesday, especially with extended exposure to the sun. Falling cornices are a likely trigger for slab avalanches on the slopes below.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Loose Wet
Loose wet avalanches should be expected from steep, sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the afternoon if the sun is out for extended periods.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2