Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Recent snow from Tuesday through Wednesday will remain susceptible to solar effects Thursday. Remember to evaluate snow and terrain carefully on Thursday. Watch for signs of wind transported snow near or especially above treeline.
Detailed Forecast
An upper trough passage Wednesday night should continue to cause showers with additional light amounts of new snow expected. Further but mostly light snow showers are expected Thursday as weak high pressure rebuilds to the west.Â
The main concern should remain the possibility of loose wet snow avalanches. The recent 8-12 inches or greater of snow should be susceptible to the destabilizing effects of rapid warming due to solar input during extended sun breaks or clearing periods between showers.
Remember to evaluate snow and terrain carefully on Thursday. Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches, roller balls in surface snow and small natural wet loose releases that usually precede more major wet loose snow avalanches.
New or recent small areas of wind slab should also be possible Thursday mainly above treeline on lee slopes. Watch for signs of cracking or firmer wind transported snow.
Snowpack Discussion
Shallow new snow of about 4 inches was received in the Hurricane Ridge area a week ago.  Coupled with wind, this built some shallow wind slab on lee slopes near and above treeline that remained stubborn, but reactive to ski tests as late as Sunday, as noted by professional observer Katy Reid.  Also noted Sunday were loose dry slides on shaded slopes and loose wet avalanches on solar aspects.
Much warmer weather and sunshine late Sunday and Monday likely produced more widespread wet slides by Monday. Â
Cooling and a frontal passage Tuesday deposited about 8-12 inches of new snow in the north Olympics as of Wednesday morning.  Showers Wednesday afternoon is adding additional new snow amounts to those totals.  Winds near tree line have remained relatively light, however stronger winds above treeline may have formed new shallow wind slab on lee slopes from NW through SE aspects.
For the recent observations near Hurricane Ridge this past Friday see Katy's video.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1