Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Wednesday night: 5-10 cm new snow expected, maybe 15 cm close to the coast. Strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level rising to around 1100 m.

Thursday: Around 10 cm new snow. Moderate southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1200 m.

Friday: 15-20 cm new snow. Strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1200 m.

Saturday: 15-20 cm new snow. Strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1200 m.

A widespread natural storm slab avalanche cycle up to size 3 was observed as the storm tapered off Monday. Reports of artificially triggered storm slab avalanches include remote size 1.5-2.5 near treeline. Explosive control work below treeline in the highway corridor produced results up to size 1.5.

Reports of deep persistent slab avalanches have been trickling in throughout the month, with the last reported event occurring on Jan 17th. They are associated with a November crust layer near the base of the snowpack which has produced very large avalanches (size 3+) with crown depths of around 2 m. These have typically run in alpine terrain, on lee or cross-loaded slopes.

60-90 cm or recent storm snow is settling rapidly with mild weather. In exposed areas, expect southerly winds to build fresh wind slabs on north aspect slopes. The new snow rests on extensively wind affected surfaces at upper elevations, and a thick layer of weak facets in sheltered areas treeline and below.

A deep crust from mid November lurks at the base of the snowpack. Although the last reported avalanche on this layer was from Jan 17th, I wouldn't write this layer off. At this time it is most likely to react in response to a large trigger such as a cornice fall, or in response to significant warming.

• Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
• Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.