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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 16th, 2021–Nov 17th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Cold temps have locked the huge load of storm snow in place. That being said, I've never seen 200cm of snow fall in 3 days, so I would stay conservative in my run choices.

Let the storm snow settle a little longer. Winter is just beginning...

Weather Forecast

Continuing cool temps with isolated flurries

Tonight: flurries, 6cm, Alpine low -15*C, mod/strong W winds

Wed: mix of sun and cloud, Alpine high -8*C, light SW winds

Thurs: cloudy with isolated flurries, Alpine high -8*C, light SW winds

Fri: cloudy with isolated flurries, Alpine high -10*C, light W winds

Snowpack Summary

204mm of precip in the past 72 hours at Tree-line! The storm snow arrived cold, then warmed considerably mid-storm, and cooled at the tail-end of the event. There will be rain crusts and moist snow layered in the new snowfall. This massive load sits upon the widespread Nov 5 rain crust, which was found below Tree-line to 2400m in the Alpine.

Avalanche Summary

A large natural avalanche cycle ripped through Rogers Pass Sunday and Monday, with numerous large avalanches (sz 3-3.5) observed throughout the highway corridor. Many avalanches had enough energy to overcome the rough slide-alder slopes and make it to valley bottom.

Natural avalanche size and frequency has decreased with the cooler temps.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

In the past 72hrs, we received 200+mm in the alpine. Warm temps and strong SW winds have helped form this load into a cohesive storm slab. This sits on a widespread rain crust that has been found high into the Alpine.

  • Avoid paths that have not avalanched recently.
  • Use caution in alpine and open treeline lees. Recent snowfall has created storm slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Dry

In the Alpine and upper Tree-line, expect fast-moving, loose, dry avalanches in steep, sheltered/confined terrain features.

  • Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2