The Winter Permit System is no longer in effect so get an early start! Freezing levels will rise this afternoon and stay high. When the surface crust breaks down the snowpack will become unstable.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Building high pressure over the region will give us sunny skies and start to drive temperatures up. Freezing level is forecast to go up to 3300m today which will give us an Alpine high of 9 deg. Winds will be S-10kph & there's no precip forecast in the next few days. Most models show freezing levels staying above 3700m until the middle of the week
Snowpack Summary
The melt-freeze crust on the surface is over 10cm thick, with the top ~5cm breaking down to "corn" by early afternoon. The crust will become weaker with forecast warm overnight temps. Below this crust is ~60cm of weak, moist snow. On steep, N'ly aspects above ~2300m the snow remains dry. At low elevations the snow is rapidly receding.
Avalanche Summary
There has been very little avalanche activity lately due to good overnight freezes of the snow pack. But with the forecast high freezing level avalanche activity will increase. Warm temps will quickly destabilize the snowpack! Expect glide-cracks to become more active, which are opening up on many slopes and can fail unpredictably.
Confidence
Problems
Loose Wet
A strong surface crust exists and with good timing spring "corn" skiing can be had when the surface starts to break down. However when the crust has completely broken down loose wet avalanches will be easy to trigger and can entrain significant mass.
Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Start and finish early before the surface crusts melt.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wet Slabs
With the warms temps & strong solar radiation, avalanche activity will surely increase. Without an overnight freeze the snowpack will warm and lose its structure. As this happens it will sporadically fail as large destructive wet slab avalanches
Use extra caution on solar slopes, or if the snow is moist or wet.Avoid exposure to overhead slopes with Glide Cracks. Avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Apr 18th, 2016 8:00AM
