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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 26th, 2015–Mar 27th, 2015
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

The upper snowpack is touchy, complex and sensitive to human triggering.  Warm temperatures are on route with wet and windy weather for the next 48hrs.

Weather Forecast

Wet flurries, rising temperatures and moderate SW winds are forecast for today, perfect for rising avalanche danger as the load increases over weak layers. Freezing levels are expected to rise to 2700m with 5mm of rain on Friday.  Alpine temperatures are expected to stay above freezing Thursday afternoon through Friday with wind gusting up to 80km.

Snowpack Summary

We have 60cm of storm snow at and above treeline and it is settling into a surface slab.  Below the surface slab are a sandwich of crusts, surface hoar and facetted layers that are building reactivity to light loads such as skiers.  A weak facet layer on top of a crust down 70cm is easily triggered at treeline and is prone to propagation.

Avalanche Summary

Additional load and warming temperatures will increase the sensitivity of the weak layers in the upper snowpack.  Convex rolls are reactive to ski cuts triggering slabs on the weak facet layer on top of crust combo.  Loose snow sluffing out of steep terrain has also been enough load to trigger this layer. 

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers down 50-100cm have been triggered recently by light loads such as skiers and sluffing from steep terrain.  These layers have been remotely triggered and are prone to propagate widely.
Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

The building load of storm snow is settling into a surface slab and is bonding poorly where it overlies a crust.  S through SW winds are creating pockets of fresh windslab at ridge top. Rising temps will increase reactivity of the storm slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4