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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 8th, 2017–Feb 9th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Pay attention to clues like cracking and whumphing, and avoid convexities to manage the current problems. We are bracing for a storm to arrive tonight, bringing up to 40mm in 24 hours with strong winds. If the forecast is right, things will get spicy

Weather Forecast

Today expect a mix of sun and cloud, alpine highs should rise to a balmy -12'C with light winds. Overnight the storm will arrive, with 7cm expected overnight.  Thursday heavy snowfall will bring ~30cm, with freezing levels rising to 1500m, alpine highs of -4 and moderate to strong SW winds intensifying loading rates. Friday we expect another 10cm.

Snowpack Summary

Strong N'ly winds, combined with ~30cm of loose snow has reverse loaded slopes and formed wind slabs at ridgetop and immediate lees. The storm snow overlies a variety of surfaces; sun crust on steep solar slopes, hard windslabs in the alpine and gully features, small surface hoar and facets. As the storm slab develops it is unlikely to bond well.

Avalanche Summary

Strong N'ly winds triggered several size 2-2.5 natural avalanches along the highway corridor. They were primarily from steep paths with lee start zones, and avalanches ran well onto the fans. Skiers/riders have reported triggering slabs up to 60cm deep, with some remote triggering from up to 50m away. Propagation has been minimal in the soft slab.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

30cm of storm snow sits on a variety of surfaces to which it may bond poorly (check out this snow profile). As the snow forms a slab, and with new load from the storm expect it to become more reactive and capable of propagating into larger avalanches
Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking. Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

N'ly winds at ridgetop, and downflow winds in drainages have changed the landscape, forming windslabs in unusual places. Be especially cautious on S'ly aspects where reverse loading has formed windslabs on a suncrust.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.Choose regroup spots carefully.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3