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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 29th, 2015–Jan 30th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Avalanche danger will increase with solar input this afternoon. Avoid exposure to overhead cornices that may trigger deep instabilities.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will keep Rogers Pass dry today. A slight temperature inversion with light winds will trap clouds in the bottom of valleys, but the sun is expected to shine at higher elevations.  Temperatures return to winter norms with an alpine high of -5.  Light snowfall is expected for Friday afternoon as a frontal system moves inland.

Snowpack Summary

A breakable crust over moist to dry snow up to ~2400m. Above 2400m snow is heavily wind affected. The Jan15 surface hoar layer down 60-90cm is becoming more stubborn to trigger but is still likely to propagate. The Dec 17 surface hoar/ crust complex is down 130-180cm and is still reactive in snowpack tests. Large cornices have formed.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanches were observed yesterday. An artillery verification shoot with 2 rounds produced a size 1.5 and a size 2 avalanche in previously controlled paths.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Jan 15 surface hoar layer is buried 60-100cm deep. This interface remains reactive due to large, poorly bonded surface hoar crystals.  Avalanches from large triggers such as cornice fall might step down to a deeper layer from Dec 17.
Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4