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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 4th, 2014–Dec 5th, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Natural avalanche activity has decreased. Human triggered avalanches are still possible in specific terrain with high consequences.

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud, alpine temps -4, light winds and no precipitation for today. Freezing levels rise to 1200m ahead of an incoming system.  Light precipitation is forecasted to arrive late this evening.  By Saturday, freezing levels continue to rise to 1600m with an increase in winds and precipitation. Avalanche hazard will rise with weather.

Snowpack Summary

Ongoing cold weather is weakening the upper snowpack with faceting.  Recent stability tests suggest that two persistent weak layers (a variety of surface hoar, crusts and facets) buried down ~100 and ~130cm, are becoming less reactive. The failure character of these layers is still sudden planer.  A breakable crust exists below ~1600m.

Avalanche Summary

A few size 1.5, solar triggered, avalanches were observed yesterday. Prior to the cold snap, a widespread avalanche cycle occurred. Large avalanches, with wide propagations, demonstrated the potential of buried weak layers. Some areas have not yet avalanched, for example the Frequent Flyer path up the Connaught Drainage.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers buried down ~1m and ~1.3m are cause for concern. They are capable of producing very large avalanches and may be triggered by skiers. Trigger points include steep alpine terrain, thin areas, and unsupported open slopes.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche - even on low angle terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3