Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Through the period, the south of the region is expected to see two to three times the amount of new snow as the north. The following amounts are for the higher snow areas (south). Monday: 10-15 cm new snow is expected with strong southwesterly ridgetop winds gusting to 60 km/h. Treeline temperatures around -7C. Tuesday: Dry during the day with snow starting up late in the day. Moderate north westerly ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures around -5C.  Wednesday: 10-20 cm new snow with strong southwesterly winds. Models do not currently agree on the amount of snow with this system.

A thin, but relatively wide-propagating avalanche was triggered on Needle Peak in the Coquihalla Mountains on Sunday. You can read the description here. This kind of avalanche is likely to increase in size and destructive potential with additional loading by new snow and wind.

New snow has fallen on old surfaces comprising surface hoar and facets. The crystals are better developed in shady areas, but on solar aspects they lie on top of a sun crust. On all aspects, the bond between the old snow and the new storm snow is likely to be poor. In exposed areas, particularly on northerly aspects, wind slabs have formed and are reported to be easily triggered by light loads such as skiers. Below the recent storm snow, and through most of the middle portion of the snowpack, no significant weak layers have been reported. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer exists, which is now unlikely to be triggered, except perhaps by heavy triggers in steep, shallow, rocky terrain where more faceting has taken place.