Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
Confidence
Fair - Due to limited field observations
Weather Forecast
Wednesday: Expect clouds to build through the day with alpine temperatures reaching -5 and winds turning to moderate southwesterlies. Freezing levels could reach 1500m. Isolated flurries are possible, with limited accumulations.Thursday: Cloudy skies with temperatures reaching -2 and freezing levels climbing to 1800m. Expect light westerly winds and a chance of isolated flurries.Friday: Expect continued unsettled skies with more isolated flurries, temperatures around -2 and light westerly winds.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous rider triggered and isolated remote/sympathetic events have been reported in high (2400-2700m) north and northeast facing slopes up to size 2.0, all associated with preserved surface hoar.
Snowpack Summary
Recent convective snowshowers (Thursday to Sunday) have given up to 45cm of new snow at higher elevations. The surface snow has been going moist on all aspects up to 2000m and higher on solar aspects due to strong solar inputs. The new snow interfaces are predominantly crusts (sun, wind, meltfreeze) and the bonds within this storm snow are slowly tightening.50-75cm below the surface you will find a melt-freeze crust from previous sunny weather. At the same interface, spotty surface hoar is still being reported (up to 20mm!) in some high, north facing slopes. Where the surface hoar is present, consistent sudden results have been observed. Isolated sudden results have also been reported on the crust interface (South through East aspects, 2000-2300m), where some facetting has occurred.Cornices are huge and may act as a large trigger on slopes below.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 5
Cornices
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 6