Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 8th, 2021 8:17AM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.
Ross Campbell,
Conservative decision making should still be applied today. Don't let the sunny skies and deep powder lure you into bigger, or steeper terrain features.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Expect mostly sunny skies today as the ridge of high pressure blocks a cold front attempting to infiltrate Rogers Pass; this front may produce some high cloud later this afternoon.
Today: Mainly sunny, no precipitation, Fl rising to 1300m and light wind.
Saturday: Mainly cloudy, light SW winds and a FL of 1200m
Snowpack Summary
We have received approx 90cm of new snow at TL before the sunny skies took over. Expect wind affected snow on the surface in the alpine, and exposed areas of TL. This storm buries a SH layer (Dec 26), which is preserved in sheltered areas at and below treeline. The Dec 7/13th surface hoar/crust/facet sandwich is now 1.5m below the surface.
Avalanche Summary
A small solar avalanche cycle was observed yesterday in the HWY corridor, with the average size of 1.5, max 2.5, mainly in extreme terrain and on solar asp. MIN reports from the Hermit and Asulkan areas reported comparable activity to size 1.5. Our neighbors at RMR reported several skier accidentals yesterday to size 1.5, and one partial burial!
Confidence
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Our latest surface hoar layer (Dec 26th) is now buried ~90cm below the surface. If triggered, these layers have the potential to step down to the early December Persistent Weak Layers.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Be wary of large slopes that did not previously avalanche.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Mod-strong winds during the last storm, and down flow winds has built wind slabs in exposed terrain features in the Alpine and exposed areas of Tree Line. These slabs have the potential to step down to the Dec 26th layer.
- Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
- If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
Another day of sunny skies and light wind will likely trigger another loose dry cycle in steep to extreme terrain, on solar aspects this afternoon.
- Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
Aspects: South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 9th, 2021 8:00AM
