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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 30th, 2018–Dec 31st, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Fresh, touchy storm slabs have formed from yesterday's storm. They will be sensitive to human triggering.

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud with moderate North winds and an alpine high of -13C. Temperatures are forecast to remain cold with a continued Northerly flow through tonight shifting to Westerly for New Years Eve.

Snowpack Summary

40cm+ of storm snow in the last 48hrs at 1900m. Storm started with a layer of weak stellars shifting to rimed snow as the temperature warmed. This layer combo has formed a very touchy storm slab. The Dec 9 and Nov 21 interfaces are down ~120-140cm and still producing Hard and Sudden test results.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche cycle yesterday with numerous avalanches to size 3 through the highway corridor. Very touchy thin surface slab conditions yesterday with numerous 0.5 skier controlled avalanches on features over 35 degrees on our field test run.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

40cm+ storm snow with mod SW winds and warm temps has formed a touchy storm slab. The bond at the old snow surface is weak. The bond to the old snow surface will need time to strengthen. Expect the storm slab to be sensitive to human triggering.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 9 and Nov 21 persistent weak layers are down ~120cm+ and consists of surface hoar, facets, or a sun crust depending on aspect and elevation. With the new load these weak layers may wake up again.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3