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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2019–Jan 4th, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Kananaskis.

We are expecting the natural avalanche cycle to continue over the next 24hrs.  Strongly encourage people to avoid all avalanche terrain at this time. 

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Forecasts are calling for an additional 30-50cm of snow over the next 24 hrs with warmer temps and high winds.  Natural avalanches and human triggered avalanches are likely. 

Avalanche Summary

Visibility was limited all day and forecasters never got a good look into most start zones.  As a result, no avalanche activity was observed. 

Snowpack Summary

15-20cm of snow has fallen over the past 24hrs in the alpine with associated strong winds.  New windslabs are building in all open terrain that are reactive to skier traffic.  These windslabs are also failing naturally.  As the new snow falls the weak base will continue to be overloaded and we are expecting a natural avalanche cycle to begin over the next 24hrs.  Friday will be a good day to avoid avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The basal layers are very weak. New snow and strong winds will overload the weak base and we are expecting a natural avalanche to continue.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Cracking and whumpfing indicated these slabs are very reactive to skiers as well as natural avalanche activity.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5