Avalanche Forecast

Wednesday night: Cloudy with continuing flurries with about 5 more cm of new snow, closer to 10 cm near the coast. Moderate to strong south winds.

Thursday: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing up to 5 more cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Moderate to strong south winds. Alpine high temperatures around -5.

Friday: Cloudy with continuing scattered flurries bringing up to 5 more cm of new snow. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -7.

Saturday: Cloudy with a stronger storm pulse starting with about 5 cm of new snow, increasing quite a bit overnight. Moderate to strong south winds. Alpine high temperatures around -7.

A natural wind slab avalanche cycle with numerous wind slabs from size 2 to 3.5 (large to very large) was reportedly ongoing in the Bear Pass area on Wednesday morning. No other new avalanche activity has been reported, but stormy weather has been limiting observations and conditions in some other parts of the region may well mirror those noted in the Pass.

Explosive control work on Monday produced storm slab avalanches up to size 2. Natural wet loose avalanches up to size 1.5 were also observed.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle with storm slab avalanches up to size 4 occurred throughout the weekend. Most natural avalanche activity were observed on solar aspects within the storm snow. On shaded aspects, avalanches may have run on a layer of surface hoar which formed prior to the arrival of the storm.

5-10 cm per 12 hour period is expected to accumulate over the next couple of days, adding to 10-15 cm of new snow already atop last weekend's storm totals ranging from 50 cm. in the north to 150 cm. in the south of the region. Forecast moderate to strong southwesterly winds are expected to form fresh slabs in lee features at treeline and above on an ongoing basis. Rain fell below 900 m over the weekend, saturating the upper snowpack at lower elevations.

Collectively, the new snow and recent storm snow may overlie a persistent weak layer of surface hoar buried March 12 on northerly aspects and in sheltered terrain features around treeline or a melt-freeze crust on southerly aspects and below treeline.

Around 100 to 300 cm now overlies a persistent weak layer buried in mid-February that may still be a concern in isolated parts of the region. The layer consists of surface hoar in areas sheltered from the wind and facets that formed during February's cold snap. 

Conditions are lending themselves to these persistent layers stabilizing, but professionals in the region are continuing to track and treat them with caution, especially the shallower layer from March.

The mid and lower snowpack is well settled and strong in most areas.

• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Choose conservative terrain and watch for clues of instability.
• Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.