Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloud with isolated flurries bringing a trace to 5 cm of new snow. Light to moderate northwest winds

SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with cloud increasing. Flurries beginning again in the afternoon and increasing overnight. Moderate to strong west winds, peaking overnight. Alpine high temperatures around -11.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, approaching 15-25 cm including overnight amounts, continuing overnight again. Strong to extreme southwest winds, easing only a bit overnight. Alpine high temperatures reaching about -2 as freezing levels jump to around 1700 metres.

MONDAY: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing another 5-10 cm of new snow and 2-day snow totals to 25-40cm. Moderate to strong west winds. Alpine temperatures falling from about -7 to -12 over the day as freezing levels return to valley bottom.

This spooky report of large remote triggered avalanches came in Wednesday.

Widespread whumphing was reported Tuesday which is a clear sign of an unstable snowpack. More details in this MIN report.

There was likely a widespread natural avalanche cycle on Sunday and Monday as a result of heavy loading from snow and wind.

There were numerous reports of touchy conditions on Sunday as evidenced here and here. 

There was a fatal avalanche accident in the Hasler area on Saturday. The incident occurred on a northeast aspect between 1400 and 1600 m. The avalanche was a size 2.5. The fracture line was estimated to be 50-100 cm and is suspected to have been a persistent slab avalanche running on the weak layer of surface hoar described in our snowpack summary. Click here to link to a report on the incident.

The north of the region has seen little snow since Monday night, but the south of the region picked up an additional 10 to 25 cm of new snow. This adds to the 40-60+cm of warm snow that fell through the weekend with strong southwest and west winds which formed reactive storm slabs and wind slabs in exposed terrain.

New snow over the last week has been increasing the load on a widespread persistent weak layer consisting of surface hoar. The layer is likely 80-120 cm deep near Renshaw and 60-100 cm deep around Torpy and further north. Reports suggest this layer is most prevalent around treeline elevations, but likely reaches into the alpine and in openings below treeline too. It may sit above a crust below 1600 m. The likelihood of triggering this layer has increased under incremental loading from new snow and the consequences of triggering it are high.

• Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
• In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.