Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, light to moderate southeast wind, alpine temperatures around -18 C. 

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light variable wind, alpine temperatures around -17 C.

MONDAY: Sunny with a few clouds, light variable wind, alpine temperatures around -12 C. 

TUESDAY: Increasing cloud, light west wind with moderate gusts at ridgetop, temperatures around -12 C. 

Minimal avalanche activity has been reported over the past week. A few point releases from rocks on solar aspects were observed, although they did not run far or gather mass. 

Last weekend there were a few reports of large avalanches (size 2.5-3) on southeast aspects in the alpine. These avalanches released naturally, possibly due to the influence of solar radiation or cornice falls. See a photo here. A large human triggered avalanche (size 2.5) on buried surface hoar was last reported near Quartz Creek on Feb 3, and a small (size 1) explosive triggered avalanche on surface hoar was reported on Monday. While there is an overall trend in decreasing likelihood of avalanches, there still remains a lingering possibility to trigger a persistent slab avalanche in isolated steep terrain features.

The upper snowpack is becoming soft and faceted with the cold temperatures, while recent wind has left some isolated wind slabs in lee features. A weak layer formed in late January and is now 30-60 cm deep. In the northern Purcells this layer has been reported as a surface hoar layer at treeline and below treeline elevations, but a combination of facets on crusts could exist at all elevations throughout the region. This persistent weak layer has potential to surprise backcountry users with how wide the fracture can travel across slopes. This layer will be slow to gain strength and requires careful terrain selection. 

The northern Purcells also have an older surface hoar layer that can still be found 60-100 cm deep at treeline. Additional weak layers may exist near the bottom of the snowpack and should be considered in steep rocky areas with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.

• Use caution when approaching steep and rocky terrian.
• Carefully evaluate big/extreme terrain features before committing to them, it's not full "go" time yet.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.