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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 19th, 2021–Feb 20th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
5: Extreme
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be extreme
Treeline
5: Extreme
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be extreme
Below Treeline
5: Extreme
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be extreme

Regions: Glacier.

Conditions are complex and changing. New snow buries windslabs and may be a hazard itself where it slabs up or runs loose dry over the drought interface

Weather Forecast

A westerly 'zonal' flow is setting up over BC bringing flurries today for Rogers Pass followed by a series of fronts Saturday and Sunday. 5cm today with moderate SW winds and a high of -10. 10cm more snow tomorrow with similar moderate SW wind. Heavy snowfall, rising temperatures and strong to extreme W winds on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

20cm of snow in the last few days covers the cold weakened drought surface. Facets, wind effect and crusts lie under the new snow and make a poor interface for it to bond to. Surface hoar, crusts and facets have still been found down 70-100cm on the January 24th persistent interface. The mid and lower snowpack remain strong.

Avalanche Summary

New snow is building up on a weak interface. Several loose dry avalanches were reported yesterday, running on the drought interface. Recent reports indicates that slabs are still triggerable in isolated areas under the new snow.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

By the end of today there could be 25cm over the Valentine's Day weak interface of facets and crusts. This will also hide recent windslabs that may still be reactive in unusual areas. Check out this MCR describing the problem in more detail

  • Watch for pockets of hard windslab in steep alpine features.
  • The recent snow is now hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 24th interface has been found in numerous recent profiles. This layer is most concerning on steep, unsupported terrain features on solar aspects

  • Persistent slabs may be more sensitive to human triggering on solar asp where it sits on sun crust

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 3