Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
An unprecedented dump (150+cm in 48hrs) for mid-Nov has dramatically changed the landscape. Storm slabs are prevalent at all elevations and aspects.
Travel cautiously for the next couple of days, observing how this huge load settles on the slopes.
Weather Forecast
An Arctic ridge will move into the region early Tues am, bringing cold temps and stable weather.
Tonight: Flurries, 6cm, Alpine high -13*C, mod/strong W winds
Tues: Cloudy w/ sun and isolated flurries, Alpine high -13*C, light/mod W winds
Wed: Cloudy w/ sunny periods, Alpine high -8*C, light SW winds
Thurs: Cloudy, Alpine high -8*C, light SW winds
Snowpack Summary
150+mm of precip in the past 48 hours has formed a remarkable storm slab! The new snow has fallen with moderate SW winds and mild temps. Snow depths have ballooned, with 1m at Rogers Pass, over 1.5m at tree-line, and 2+m in the Alpine. There are 2 crusts to date, the Nov 5th buried ~100cm and the Oct crust that lies near the base of the snowpack.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous large avalanches (sz 3-3.5) observed along the highway corridor, with many running down into valley bottoms.
Expect this natural avalanche cycle to slow on Tues with the end of the snowfall and cooling temps.
Confidence
Due to the number and quality of field observations
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
In the past 48hrs, we received 100cm of snow at 1300m and 150+cm in the alpine. Warm temps and strong SW winds have helped form this load into a cohesive storm slab. This sits on a widespread rain crust that has been found high into the Alpine.
- Use caution in alpine and open treeline lees. Recent snowfall has created storm slabs.
- Avoid paths that have not avalanched recently.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Loose Dry
In the Alpine and upper Tree-line, expect fast-moving, loose, dry avalanches in steep, sheltered/confined terrain features.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2