Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the complexity of the snowpack’s structure. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with scattered flurries, alpine low -9, moderate southwest wind.

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, alpine high -4, moderate southwest wind increasing to strong overnight.

Thursday: Flurries accumulating 5-10 cm, alpine high -4, southwest wind gusting to strong.

Friday: Cloudy with scattered flurries accumulating to 5 cm, alpine high -3, light northwest wind.

Although natural avalanche activity has largely subsided, a few natural persistent slabs are still being reported. Monday in the south of the region, a size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche was observed, suspected to have been triggered by wind loading. On Monday, skier triggered avalanches up to size 2 were reported on south aspects. Results from explosive control work have been hit or miss, occasionally producing avalanches up to size 3. 

Last week's storm snow has seen some redistribution by the wind. Isolated soft wind slabs can be found in the lee of features such as ridge tops. Below the 40-80 cm of snow from last week, lies a thick layer of faceted crystals, previously wind-affected surfaces, and/or surface hoar in sheltered areas (around treeline and below). The surface hoar layer within the storm snow can still be found in some locations but has not shown recent reactivity.

A weak layer formed in late November is now buried 60-100 cm below the surface. This is the layer of concern relating to the persistent slab avalanche problem. The weak layer may present as surface hoar, a crust, facets or a combination, depending on elevation and aspect. It can most likely be found in areas sheltered from the wind, but open to a view of the sky, such as near treeline. Below this, variety of crusts from late October are buried deeper in the snowpack.