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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2014–Jan 16th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Thursday: A warm front is moving North along the coast and will bring light precipitation on the North and Eastern part of the region till Thursday night and rising freezing levels on the whole region reaching 1000 m by the afternoon Thursday. Winds are expected to keep blowing strong from the SW. Mainly cloudy skies.Friday: The whole Coast is under a high pressure system, clearing skies, moderate to strong SW switching from the S and freezing levels reaching 2000 m. Saturday: A frontal system is expected to reach the coast, expect cloudy skies, mild temperatures and winds tapering down.

Avalanche Summary

Multiple size 2 avalanches released in the moist storm slab mostly on E aspects and as glide crack releases at lower elevations.

Snowpack Summary

The recent wind event and forecasted strong winds from the NW will continue developping windslabs in the alpine and at top of treeline elevation band tomorrow which will most likely remain touchy during the day. Below 1500 m, yesterday’s heavy rain soaked the snowpack creating a crust and very bad skiing conditions. I suspect that buried surface hoar layer at treeline and basal facets on thin rocky features will keep healing with these mild temperatures. However, it is a good idea to keep looking for it, testing it and avoid steep unsupported terrain where the surface hoar layer is suspected to exist. Watch for solar radiation on steep S facing slopes and temperatures warming tomorrow.  This would result in weakening the snowpack and cornices which could trigger fresh slabs.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecasted strong winds from the SW tomorrow and snow available for transport in the alpine and top treeline will keep loading lee slopes. Storm snow in sheltered areas and fresh windslabs could weaken with the warming temperatures.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Facet/crust combo down 100 cm is still a concern mostly at treeline.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5