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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2012–Jan 15th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Sunday should be a beautiful day in the mountains as an outbreak of cold, dry Arctic Air takes hold of the region. Expect alpine winds out of the N, NE with lower elevation winds out of the E. Temperatures dip down to -26 overnight with a daytime high around -10. This pattern looks to persist through Tuesday evening.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no avalanches observations reported from the region.

Snowpack Summary

There is about 235 cm at 1500 metres.Heavy rain occurred last weekend up to about 1000 metres. Cooling since the storm has created a rain crust up to about 1200 metres. Above that, high winds redistributed the storm snow into wind slabs on lee and cross-loaded features. Since then, the region has received only dribs and drabs of new snow, and I suspect that last weekend's wind slab has gained considerable strength. I would expect soft slabs developing at treeline and in the alpine from the light accumulations throughout the week.There is an old rain crust that is buried down about a metre that is knife hard and showing old facets above and below. The snowpack is well settled below the rain crust down to the ground. The snowpack in the alpine is highly variable.Strong winds with almost every storm this winter have scoured ridges and knolls down to bare ground, and exposed boulders on some slopes.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong winds out of the North - East associated with Arctic Air are forming fresh sensitive windslabs in unusual locations. These windslabs will be especially tender Sunday/Monday. Use terrain to your advantage to avoid this hazard.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Persistent slabs are getting harder to trigger but still exist in many locations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6