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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2014–Jan 16th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Another natural cycle was initiated on Wednesday from the warm temps and strong winds.  Winds will begin to ease off on Thursday but conditions are TOUCHY and at the higher end of considerable.  Be Very conservative.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Warm temps will continue and no new precip is forecast for the next few days.  The strong westerly flow is expected to die down a little but we can still expect moderate SW winds over the next little while.

Avalanche Summary

A few recent avalanches up to sz 3 have been observed over the past few days.  These slides have mainly been on N and E aspects but have been running full path involving the entire winters snowpack.  Two recent skier accidental and skier remote avalanche were also observed on N and SE aspects at treeline locations.  See here for more details.

Snowpack Summary

Strong to extreme SW winds and warm temps have promoted rapid settlement of the snowpack over the past 24hrs.  Any available snow in Alpine terrain has been redistributed by the wind and deposited in lee features and along cross-loaded gullies. The additional load from the winds seems to be kicking off another cycle of natural avalanche activity mainly on N and E aspects as the basal facets become overloaded.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Skier triggerable windslabs are being encountered as one moves into more treeline or wind affected features.  Two recent close calls were observed each around 2200m.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Persistent Slabs

Many large natural avalanches have been observed over the past few days.  These slides have involved the entire winters snowpack and ran full path to valley bottoms.  Heads up.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 4 - 6