Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2015–Jan 7th, 2015

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

A nice surprise today, up to 10cm of new snow has buried the Dec crust. The new snow will take a day or two to settle. In the meantime, asses the conditions throughout the day.

Confidence

Fair - Wind speed and direction is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A bit of an unusual temperature pattern for tomorrow. Lower elevation temps will rise while the upper elevations remain steady. A brief inversion is expected tomorrow morning. 2500m winds will be light to moderate, with upper winds into the strong range. The snow has ended, and it will stay that way for a few days.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new was seen today.

Snowpack Summary

We had almost 10cm's of new snow at valley bottom. This was slightly more than forecasted. The snow today had an "upside down" feel to it. The surface snow was slightly more dense than the layer below. The Dec 18th rain crust is going strong in the Commonwealth valley. It is still very apparent, yet it is supportive in most areas with the new snow. The snow immediately above(a very thin layer) and below is faceted. The midpack has continued to degrade in quality. The layers at the bottom, the Nov 6th crust, is extremely weak. Despite the conditions, there was no whumphing noted. There was some mild cracking on convex rolls and unsupported terrain. Upper treeline and alpine observations were limited today.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

This problem involves two issues: windslabs up high and a heavy surface layer lower down. Up higher, the windslab is expected to extend well below ridge crest.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

There is enough snow on all aspects now to extend the concern with this layer. Watch for snow with a cakey feeling to it as you approach treeline elevations.

Avoid unsupported slopes.>Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

With the new load the uncertainty with this layer is renewed. Monitor the layer as you travel.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4