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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 12th, 2015–Nov 13th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

A storm is forecast to cross the region over the next 48hrs.  Up to 70cm of snow may fall with strong SW winds. This will likely be the first avalanche cycle of the season.

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

A significant storm is approaching at this time.  Total snowfall over the next three days may be between 60-80cm with strong SW winds.  As usual, its just a forecast so we will have to wait till tomorrow and see how much new snow we get!  For now, Friday is calling for 20cm throughout the day and then the main pulse of the storm is expected on Friday evening and Saturday day.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural activity was observed on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Still not a whole pile of snow out there.  On average 50-70cm of snow can be found at treeline.  In Alpine areas strong winds on Thursday transported available snow onto lee aspects creating pockets of wind slabs.  Stiff windslabs should be expected in gullied terrain and along ridgelines.  Any avalanche that does occur is likely to involve the entire winters snowpack right now so keep the idea of a "rough" ride in your head.  Its still early season out there. 

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs will be building with the incoming snow and winds. These will develop quickly with the warm temperatures.
Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Wind Slabs will be buried beneath the new snow we are forecasting making them tougher to locate.
Be cautious of buried obstacles in shallow snowpack areas.>The recent snow may now be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3