Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 12th, 2015 7:14AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Wind Slabs.

mike.koppang, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

A storm is forecast to cross the region over the next 48hrs. Up to 70cm of snow may fall with strong SW winds. This will likely be the first avalanche cycle of the season.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

A significant storm is approaching at this time. Total snowfall over the next three days may be between 60-80cm with strong SW winds. As usual, its just a forecast so we will have to wait till tomorrow and see how much new snow we get! For now, Friday is calling for 20cm throughout the day and then the main pulse of the storm is expected on Friday evening and Saturday day.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural activity was observed on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Still not a whole pile of snow out there. On average 50-70cm of snow can be found at treeline. In Alpine areas strong winds on Thursday transported available snow onto lee aspects creating pockets of wind slabs. Stiff windslabs should be expected in gullied terrain and along ridgelines. Any avalanche that does occur is likely to involve the entire winters snowpack right now so keep the idea of a "rough" ride in your head. Its still early season out there.

Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs will be building with the incoming snow and winds. These will develop quickly with the warm temperatures.

Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Wind Slabs will be buried beneath the new snow we are forecasting making them tougher to locate.

Be cautious of buried obstacles in shallow snowpack areas.>The recent snow may now be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Nov 13th, 2015 2:00PM